What are my chances in a typical Nepali IPO?

It depends on demand. A 20 lakh unit issue attracting around 26 lakh applicants historically gives roughly a 30-60% chance of receiving the minimum 10 units. Enter the actual figures from the share registrar to get an estimate for that specific issue.

IPO Allotment Probability Calculator

Enter an issue's size and applicant count to estimate whether you will win the minimum 10 kitta - before you apply or while you wait for the result.

Issue details

Total units offered to the public Total applicants (valid applications) Units reserved for the 10-kitta lottery (%) Kitta you are applying for

Chance of winning

3.85%

Roughly 1 in 26 applicants

Average allotment if you win

kitta including the proportional round

Likely winners

100,000

applicants receive the minimum lot

Model: about 50% of 2,000,000 units (1,000,000 kitta) fund the minimum 10-kitta lottery, so about 100,000 of 2,600,000 applicants win. The rest of the issue is shared proportionally among winners. Adjust the lottery percentage to match the registrar's announced split.

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Calculations

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Made for IPO investors in Nepal

Who checks allotment odds before applying, without a paid app.

IPO applicants

Nepalis applying to IPOs estimate their chance of allotment from the issue size and demand.

First-time investors

Newcomers to the secondary market understand why small applications often miss allotment.

MeroShare users

Investors cross-check expected allotment before applying through MeroShare.

Families

Households applying in multiple names see combined probability.

Financial educators

Trainers explain IPO mechanics with a clear probability view.

Demat account holders

Anyone with a CRN and demat plans IPO applications smartly.

What is an IPO allotment calculator, and how does this free Nepal tool work?

When an IPO in Nepal is oversubscribed, shares are allotted by lottery, so your chance depends on demand. An IPO allotment calculator estimates that probability. Scolar’s tool is free and browser-only: enter the issue size, applicants and your units, and see the odds. No sign-up, no watermark, nothing uploaded.

Why it is free, with no sign-up and unlimited use

The estimate runs on your device, so no data is uploaded and no account is needed. That keeps the tool 100% free, adds no watermark, asks for no email, and lets you calculate unlimited scenarios.

How to estimate IPO allotment, step by step

Enter the issue size, number of applicants and your applied units.
The tool estimates the allotment probability from demand.
See your likely chance instantly, with no data uploaded.

IPOs in Nepal

Nepal’s capital market is busy with IPOs through MeroShare. Understanding your real chance helps you apply wisely across family demat accounts. The tool works offline after loading.

“A Nepali applying to an IPO should not pay for an app just to see allotment odds. Enter the numbers — free.”

IPO odds checked free in Nepal

I wanted to know my real chance before applying. This showed the probability in seconds — free, no app.

NS Nirajan Shrestha IPO applicant

My first IPO application was rejected and I didn’t know why. This explained the odds clearly. Very helpful.

ST Sarina Thapa New investor

I apply in family names and this shows combined chance. Works offline on my phone at the cyber cafe.

BN Bikash Nepali Demat holder

How it works

Find the issue numbers: total units offered to the public and how many people applied - both are published after subscriptions close.

Type them in along with how many kitta you applied for.

Read your estimated win chance, odds and average allotment instantly.

Why use this tool?

Models the standard Nepali two-round system: a lottery for minimum 10-kitta lots, then proportional sharing of the remainder.
The lottery reserve percentage is adjustable so you can match what the share registrar announces.
Results update live, work offline and never send your data anywhere.

Frequently asked questions

How is IPO allotment done in Nepal?

If applications for the minimum 10 kitta exceed the shares available, CDS and Clearing runs a lottery for those minimum lots from part of the issue, and the remaining shares are allotted proportionally to larger applications.

Does applying for more units increase my chances?

No. In the minimum-lot lottery every applicant gets one ticket whether they applied for 10 or 100 units. Extra units only matter in the proportional round once the lottery winners are decided.

Is this calculator exact?

It is a close estimate. Actual results depend on valid applications after bank verification and registrar rounding, so treat the output as a guide, not a guarantee.

Where do I find the applicant count?

Share registrars like Muktinath, SIDC and Global IME publish subscription statistics when an issue closes; financial news portals also report the final applicant numbers.

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